A Guide to Betting on the EURO 2024 Semi-Finals

We are just a few days away from the EURO 2024 Final. We’ve watched as 24 teams have become 4, and outright betting markets have shifted in the absence of big teams like Portugal, Germany, Italy, and Belgium. A single football game separates Spain, France, the Netherlands, and England from the Henri Delaunay Cup and the title of “Champions of Europe”.

Betting on EURO Knockout Rounds with Casumo

Whether you’re backing England and France to find their form and meet each other in the final, or you think that the Netherlands will triumph and the Spanish will send Les Bleus packing, make sure you stick with Casumo. We are offering highly competitive EURO knockout stage odds for each stage of the competition. We have been there since day 1, and we will be there right until the final kick on July 14th.

Not only can you follow all of the action with our helpful guides and betting strategies for the knockout stages, but we also have a slew of outright, pre-game, and in-play bets for the remaining games. You can collect a host of promotions as a new player and a loyal one, and we even have a few football-themed slot machines you can play while waiting for those big kick-offs (check out Football Cash Collect and Football Star Deluxe).

Remember to gamble responsibly at all times, and if you need assistance with your account, deposits, bets, casino gaming, or anything else, we have a dedicated customer support team on hand to help.

Spain vs France (July 9th) EURO 2024 Semi-Finals Betting

The EURO 2024 Semi-Finals begin with a promising tie between 2 massive teams. Spain is an in-form, free-flowing team that found their feet early in the tournament and will set their sights on a record 4th title. France has performed below expectations and has relied on an excellent defence to get them this far, with their forward line not firing on all cylinders.

If you’re betting on EURO knockout rounds, it’s going to be a tough one to call.

Bet on Spain vs France.

Spain Knockout Betting Tips

Spain was given a very difficult start to EURO 2024. They were dropped into the Group of Death alongside Croatia, Italy, and Albania, and while they were the favourites to win that group, they had the shortest odds across all EURO 2024 group stage markets. But they passed that test with flying colours, winning all of their group games and not conceding a single goal.

Their EURO knockout stage odds dropped once they were drawn against the tournament’s outsiders, Georgia, and they did what was expected of them with a 4-1 victory. During the Quarter-Finals they were given their toughest challenge yet against hosts Germany. 

Spain scored first through Dani Olmo, but they weren’t as comfortable as they had been in previous games. Germany had many chances, and while they eventually equalised and sent the tie into extra time, they ultimately fell to a late winner from Mikel Merino. 

Germany did more to expose the Spanish defence than any previous opponent, registering a total of 23 shots, 5 of which hit the target. The Germans also had more possession and looked like the better side in spells, but they weren’t clinical enough and ultimately couldn’t get the win.

Spain will face a similar prospect in France. The home fans won’t be against them this time, but they are going up against a team that has struggled in attack, one that may fail to break them down.

France Knockout Betting Tips

In our EURO 2024 Quarter-Finals betting guide, we noted that France hadn’t really done enough to justify their position as pre-tournament favourites, which is why they have drifted into the betting. At EURO 2000, the last time they won the competition, they scored 9 goals by this point and played 1 less game (there was no Round of 16). Going into the EURO 2024 Semi-Finals, they have just 3 goals. What’s more, 2 of those were own goals, and the other was a penalty.

It means that France has progressed to the Semi-Finals of a major international competition without scoring a single goal in open play. Of course, it doesn’t matter how goals are scored or how games are won. This is knockout football, so they can technically win the tournament without scoring a goal as long as they step up during penalty shootouts. But it’s a concern for the French faithful, as well as anyone who has bet on them.

However, if you’re betting on EURO knockout rounds, don’t dismiss the French just yet. Spain is undoubtedly the in-form team, but the flip side to France’s struggling attack is an incredible defence. They have conceded just 1 goal thus far, and that came from the penalty spot. 

We tend to associate France with a free-flowing attack and a creative midfield, but at EURO 2024, they are playing more like Italy during the 1990s. They have built a brick wall in defence and play by building from the back. 

Spain vs France EURO Knockout Stage Odds

Spain has faced some strong teams at the tournament so far, but they have yet to come up against such a tough and resilient defence, and that French wall will put their young attackers to the test. They are the favourites to win the game, though, and they have also now taken over from France and England to become the favourites to win the whole competition.

There will be some questions about experience and whether Spain’s fabulous wingers can continue their form into the final stages of the tournament when things start heating up. However, there are still some very experienced players in the Spanish squad, and while the young guns have yet to run deep in a major international tournament, they still play for some of the biggest teams in the world. They know what it’s like to play on the big stage.

Speaking of playing on the big stage, a lot of the attention in this game will shift to the French superstar who moved from PSG to Real Madrid. The French forward hasn’t been at his best so far. Most of the blame has been placed on his facemask, which he was forced to wear after breaking his nose in the opener against Austria. He has openly admitted to hating the mask, and the French boss, Didier Deschamps, has previously said that it can affect his peripheral vision.

He has also recently concluded some transfer drama that saw him switch from PSG to Real Madrid, and he has no doubt been thinking about his poor showing at the EUROs. When you think of Mbappé in a French shirt, your mind goes to the 2022 World Cup, where he scored a total of 8 times, including a hat-trick in the final. But he hasn’t been as prolific at the EUROs.

At EURO 2020, he failed to score a single goal, which means he only has 1 goal to his name in his last 8 European Championship games (a penalty) and has not yet scored in open play.

Spain vs France Head-to-Head

Spain have beaten France 16 times in a head-to-head history that goes back 102 years. France won 13 of those games and there have been 7 draws. This history covers several eras, and in the recent one, La Roja have been the dominant team.

France have won just 3 of their last 10 meetings, with Spain winning 6. Their last meeting was in 2021 at the Nations League Final, where the French won the title with goals from Mbappé and Benzema. It was a close contest, but a lot has changed in the 3 years since then, especially for Spain. After all, Barcelona’s right winger was just 13 back then, and Athletic Bilbao’s winger was a year away from getting his first cap.

This is a very young Spanish team. It feels like it’s at the start of a new era, one that could rival the world-beating squad of the early 2000s. It’s a very different squad from the one that lost the 2021 Nations League Final.

The Netherlands vs England (July 10th) EURO 2024 Semi-Finals Betting

The Netherlands and England will have one eye on the final by the time this game rolls around. They will have seen Spain vs France and may already be preparing for a potential clash, given the short break between games. They will also like their chances of winning this one, as it should be a close game that could go either way.

On paper, there is a huge gulf in class between them. But football games aren’t played on paper, and if recent form is anything to go by, that gulf could be trimmed to a razor-thin wire by the evening of the 10th.

Bet on the Netherlands vs England.

The Netherlands Knockout Betting Tips

Liverpool’s forward has been a revelation for the Netherlands. He has 3 goals to his name and is currently the joint top goalscorer. He was close to grabbing a fourth against Turkey, but the defender got the last touch, and it went down as an own goal. Still, if not for his presence, the ball wouldn’t have trickled across the line for what turned out to be the winner.

The Netherlands showed a lot of resilience in that game. They were behind for a large part of the contest but turned on the style midway through the second half and grabbed 2 goals in the space of 6 minutes.

It’s not all good news, though. They have looked a little shaky in defence. This was especially evident in their game against Austria, which they lost 3-2. They also gave Türkiye plenty of chances, including in the dying minutes when Türkiye could and perhaps should have equalised.

They did draw 0-0 against France, and while France have found it very difficult in front of goal, the same could be said for England. Virgil van Dijk and Co. will be confident they can hold the English while giving Gakpo and Depay an opportunity to hassle a strong English defence and win the game.

England Knockout Betting Tips

France isn’t the only team that has performed below expectations. As we looked forward to this EURO 2024 Semi-Finals betting guide earlier in the tournament, we said that the Three Lions would need to perform better if they had any chance of going any further. Cue a Round of 16 games where they struggled against Slovakia and were saved by a last-second winner, followed by an equally shaky performance against Switzerland where they were forced to rely on a penalty shootout.

Needless to say, the Netherlands are a very different prospect from Slovakia and Switzerland. They have 9 goals from 5 different players. They also seem to be getting into their groove as the tournament progresses, which is what many expected would happen to England.

So, what’s the issue? How can a team consisting of some of 2024’s most prolific attackers be struggling in front of goal?

Many pundits have laid the blame on the midfield, implying that they are not quick enough in the transition. The suggestion is that they’re not moving the ball to the attackers quickly enough, giving opposition defenders time to settle and get into position. Kane has also been dropping deep to win the ball and set up plays. It’s what he does, and he does it very well. But it means England are relying on wingers to drop into the central position that he vacates or for Bellingham to push forward.

They have more direct strikers on the bench, including Toney, who has been used sparingly as a substitute. But it would take a very brave manager to drop the team’s highest scorer, especially when you consider how prolific he was during the recent Bundesliga season.

Whatever happens, it’s fair to say that Gareth Southgate has a lot of attacking options at his disposal, and if he can find a way to make them work, a way to bring the domestic form of Manchester City’s midfielder and Bayern’s striker Kane to EURO 2024 without silencing Arsenal’s winger or Real Madrid’s superstar, this tournament could be his for the taking.

The Netherlands vs England EURO Knockout Stage Odds

England have arguably had a much easier run to the Semi-Finals than the Netherlands. In fact, this is the first time they will face a team in the top 10 of the FIFA World Rankings. Before this game, the highest-ranked team was Switzerland, down in 19th.

We could see them step up and show their class, but we could also see the Dutch expose them in a way that Slovakia and Switzerland couldn’t. The odds are firmly in their favour, and in the Netherlands, they face a team that is now the tournament outsider. EURO knockout stage odds are very close at this point, and little separates the remaining 4 teams, but we’re sure that English fans are happier playing the Dutch than they would be against France or Spain.

The same could be said for the Netherlands, though. They might look at their group game against France and think it was a game they could have won. If not for a late disallowed goal, they probably would have won it. But in England, they will see a team that hasn’t fully settled, one that is struggling in several areas, and one that can be picked apart by an in-form attack.

Confidence will be high in both camps, but as the Netherlands are the ones performing above expectations and scoring plenty of goals, they might have the edge in that department.

The Netherlands vs England Head-to-Head

England and the Netherlands have a fairly balanced head-to-head if you go back to their very first game, a 1935 friendly that ended with an English victory. But in recent times, the Netherlands have had the edge.

These two teams last met in 2019 at the Nations League. That game ended 1-1 and went to extra-time before the Netherlands grabbed a couple of goals and claimed the win. If head-to-head plays a big role in your betting strategies for the knockout stage, you’ll be interested to know that this game was also a semi-final, and England’s loss meant they were resigned to a third-place playoff game where they beat Switzerland on penalties.

Coincidence? Definitely. History does repeat itself, and there are certainly a lot of similarities, but only if you look past the teamsheet. The 11 that England fielded that day included 7 players who weren’t even selected for the EURO 2024 squad (including both Barkley and Delph, who haven’t represented their country in 5 years). It also means they were without some of their biggest EURO 2024 stars, including Bellingham, Foden, and Saka.

England beat the Netherlands in a 2018 friendly, but you have to go back to EURO 1996 to find a win before that. In fact, in the last 40 years, the Netherlands and England have played 15 times, and England have won just 2 of them. Many have ended in draws, but the Netherlands won 6 times during that period.

This is a very different era for both teams, though, and while these two teams have met several times before, they have only played twice at the EUROs, taking a win each. Also, if you read our EURO 2024 Round of 16 betting guide, you may have seen our head-to-head report on Italy and Switzerland. We noted how dominant the former have been, only for the Swiss to control and eventually win the game.

Looking Forward to EURO 2024 Final Betting Markets

Knockout games in major tournaments are usually cagey affairs, and we’ve seen that so far at EURO 2024. Of the four Quarter-Final games, 3 went to extra-time and 2 of those made it all of the way to penalties. As mentioned previously, we also saw England leave it late against Slovakia in the Round of 16 before eventually winning in extra time, as well as a Portugal vs Slovenia game that ended 0-0 in normal time and extra time, only for Portugal to win the shootout 3-0 win.

As we move into the Semi-Finals, we’re expecting something similar, but anything can happen. In a way, the draw has been very kind to the neutrals. The 2 teams that have struggled in attack but shown resilience in defence will face 2 teams that have been free-scoring. The Netherlands (9) and Spain (11) have both scored more than France and England combined (8). Few could have predicted that France and England would make it to the Semi-Finals with a combined goal tally equal to both Switzerland and Türkiye.

Does that mean Spain will find a way to unlock the French defence and force the likes of Mbappé and Dembele to act? Will Gakpo and Depay do the same for the Netherlands against England, eventually getting a rise out of Foden and Kane?

Only time will tell, but we can’t wait to find out. 

Remaining upset potential in EURO 2024

As things stand, there are no true dark horses left at EURO 2024. Switzerland and Türkiye did assume that role, but they’re no longer with us. Still, if you focus on pre-tournament odds, a win for the Netherlands would be a surprise. The current crop of players is a far cry from the golden age of Dutch football and based on previous games and the form of their opponents, this could be the perfect opportunity for them.

It wouldn’t be a shock akin to Denmark’s win in 1992 or Greece’s in 2004, but it would be unexpected.

Penalty shootout predictions EURO 2024

We’ve already had several shootouts, and as Semi-Finals and Finals are often settled by single goals, these 2 games could go close. There are a lot of variables at play, though, and we’re dealing with fine margins, so it’s a tough prediction to make.

Index: The Euro 2024 Betting Guide

1. EURO 2024 Betting Guide
2. The Stages of EURO 2024 Explained
3. EURO 2024: Strategies and Tips
4. The Groups: Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E and Group F
5. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Round of 16
6. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Quarter-Finals
7. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Semi-Finals