Understanding the Betting Markets for EURO 2024: Strategies and Tips

EURO 2024 offers punters a wide range of betting opportunities, the best of which are available right here at Casumo. It’s a big tournament that spans four weeks and 51 games, and whether you’re monitoring those group stage odds for value, planning some betting on EURO knockout rounds, or doing a bit of everything, you’ll find your place here. With so much happening, we thought we’d help you navigate all the betting opportunities and markets while highlighting some top football tournament betting strategies and tips that could help you out.

Football Tournament Betting Strategies

In our main EURO 2024 betting guide, we briefly touched upon some of the betting markets available for EURO 2024. It’s time to go a little more in-depth and cover some of the key elements you should consider when betting on EURO 2024.

The Tournament Outright Market

The main outright market is where you bet on the team you think will win the trophy. You can also opt for “Top 2”, “Top 4”, and “Top 8”, in which case you win if your pick makes it to the final, semi-final, or quarter-final, respectively. Alternatively, back the “Winner” market and choose “Each-Way” to bet both the win and the place, which means you’ll get a share if they make it to the final and lose.

This market is not just about the best team on paper. You need to consider:

• Balance: Don’t get distracted by a team weighed down with attacking talent. You need a good defence and creative midfield if you want to beat the best. Consider how balanced they are.
• Schedule: Do they have a tough group that will wear them out? Is there a risk of a slow start and a disastrous tournament? More importantly, who are they most likely to face if they progress? The schedule is prearranged, so plot their progress.
• Form and Injuries: Are the star players actually on form, and will they be fit enough for the tournament? Just as importantly, have they been playing at the highest level recently, or were they shipped off to the US or Saudi Arabia a year ago?
• Home Advantage: Hosting the tournament makes a massive difference. All players have to travel these days as most of them play overseas, but you can’t beat the advantage of having 50,000 screaming home fans behind you.

Bet on the EURO 2024 tournament outright market

Pregame Match Markets

These markets are often created as soon as the schedule is announced, but you will typically only see them one round at a time. So, you can bet on Germany in their first game but might not see an option for their second game until that first one is over. 

We know who they will be playing, but there are form and injury considerations that could drastically change the final match odds, so they are left late. If you want to bet on individual matches as they come, wait for those final match odds to appear, consider form, and always check whether the match will be important to the team. If they are already guaranteed a group win, they may take their foot off the gas; if a loss sends them home but a draw or more will ensure progression, they will be reluctant to play attacking football.

Bet on EURO 2024 match markets

Player of the Tournament

The Player of the Tournament award, as the name suggests, goes to the best player throughout the tournament. Except…that’s not necessarily the case. As with the World Cup, this award is often handed out to a player who plays in the final. In fact, since it began in 1996, it has always gone to a player in one of the two final teams.

So, if you’re eyeing a young player who few people have noticed and expect him to blaze through the group, make all the headlines in the knockout rounds, but then fall in the semi-finals, it might be wise to look elsewhere. By all means, choose the player you think will have the best tournament, but remember that the award has always gone to a finalist, even when they haven’t been the headline-making player that everyone remembers.

The Top Goalscorer

The great thing about the Top Goalscorer award is that it’s straightforward. It’s not based on something that can’t be quantified, and the winning player doesn’t need to play in the final. Of course, there is no third-place playoff here, so if his team doesn’t make it past the semi-finals, he will play in at least one less game than his competitors.

Most of the goals that gift players this award are scored in the group stage. The knockout rounds can be cagey affairs against closely matched teams, whereas the group stages usually provide more balance. It’s just what a top striker needs to get some goals on the board.

Our top tip is to focus on strikers who lead the line for their national team, as opposed to the ones who get all the goals for their club. More importantly, look at the quality of the opposition they will be facing. If you really want to go deep, you could consider their weaknesses, such as choosing a rapid number 9 against teams with old and notoriously slow defences. That level of thought could get you some winning EURO bets, but anything can happen in a game of football, and it doesn’t always work out the way you hoped or expected.

Bet on the Top Goalscorer market

The Dark Horse

In the context of a major football tournament, a dark horse is an outsider that unexpectedly wins the competition. It is also used to reference unexpected group winners, as well as teams that go on surprise runs. Basically, it all depends on the market, but all group stage and knockout betting tips for major tournaments contain at least one possible dark horse.

Here are a few things to keep in mind when placing money on a dark horse:

• Choose Your Bet Carefully: It doesn’t have to be all or nothing. You don’t have to wager on them to win the tournament. Look at EURO knockout stage odds. Wager on them to win the group, qualify unexpectedly, or make it to the quarter-finals or semi-finals.
• Check Qualifying: The qualification rounds will give you a good idea of the potential that a team has for a shock win.

Star Players: Sometimes, dark horses are carried by exceptional players. Most of the time, however, they excel because of great tactics and team unity, as was the case with Greece in 2004. Don’t get caught up in the big names. Focus more on their ability to knit together as a unit.

How Often Do The Favourites Win Major Football Tournaments?

Most people betting on EURO 2024 will stick with the top three favourites. They acknowledge that shocks have happened in the past but assume that the favourites are leading the market for a reason and, thus, have the best chance of winning. That’s true, to an extent, but we’re not talking about spinning a roulette wheel or turning the river card in a game of poker.

Football is a game of skill, tactics, and strategy, with the luck of bad decisions, weather conditions, and injuries adding a few more variables. Anything can happen and that includes the favourite dropping out in the group stage while the outsider lifts the trophy.

For some perspective, let’s look at how the favourites have fared in this competition over the last couple of decades:

2020

As the World Cup finalists just one year earlier (the 2020 EUROs were delayed until 2021), France led the betting markets prior to the start of the tournament. They were drawn into what many considered to be the Group of Death alongside Germany, Hungary, and Portugal. France drew two of their three games and won the third, but the intense competition in the group meant the points were spread fairly evenly and they still finished top (they actually had the lowest points total of any group winner in that tournament.

Unfortunately for the French, that’s where the good news ended. They were drawn against Switzerland in the Round of 16 and crashed out following a 5-4 penalty defeat.

England began Euro 2020 as the second favourites and fared much better. They topped their group, beat Germany, Ukraine, and Denmark in the knockout rounds, and then lost in the final against Italy.

2016

France also began EURO 2016 as the favourites, and they had the benefit of home advantage. They topped their group and then beat the Republic of Ireland, Iceland, and Germany in the knockout rounds before losing in the final against Portugal.

2012

In 2012, we were still in the era of Spanish dominance, one defined by a close-knit, midfield-heavy side that produced some excellent football. It’s no surprise then that Spain entered the tournament as favourites, with Germany close behind.

Spain found themselves in a Group of Death much like the one they’re in for EURO 2024, as they were drawn against Italy and Croatia. The only difference is that the fourth team was Ireland and not Albania. It’s an interesting correlation, but of course, a lot has changed in 12 years, so don’t get too carried away if you’re betting on EURO group matches and hoping for an exact repeat.

Spain won their group and Germany won theirs. Germany then crashed out in the semi-final against Italy while Spain went on to defeat the Italians 4-0, ending an era of Spanish football that was defined by success and giving the history books a winner that began as the pre-tournament favourite.

2008

2008 was all about Germany, and they very nearly did what everyone had expected of them before the tournament. They stumbled a little in the group, finishing second behind Croatia, but they still made it to the final, only to lose against Spain.

2004

Portugal hosted in 2004, and the strength of their team meant they also began as the favourites. They topped their group and sent Spain home, with Greece taking the second spot behind them. Croatia, Germany, and Italy also dropped out at the group stage. Portugal made it to the final, but Greece joined them and eventually defeated them, giving us one of the biggest shocks in the history of this competition.

Favourites and Winners in Other Tournaments

In the above examples, the favourites ran deep in the tournament on most occasions but only won on one occasion. But what about other tournaments? Most major football tournament betting strategies emphasise the favourites, so are the EUROs the exception or not?

Well, if we look at the World Cup, we actually see similar results, with the favourites rarely winning but often running deep:

• 2022 World Cup in Qatar

• Favourites = Brazil (quarter-finals)
• Winners = Argentina 

• 2018 World Cup in Russia

• Favourites = Brazil and Germany (quarter-finals; group stage)
• Winners = France 

• 2014 World Cup in Brazil

• Favourites = Brazil (semi-finals)
• Winners = Germany 

• 2010 World Cup in South Africa

• Favourites = Spain
• Winners = Spain

EURO Football Betting Tips

There is no guaranteed way to win a football bet; no strategy that can ensure your success. You probably knew that already, but it’s worth repeating. Still, there are some specific EURO betting strategies and tips that can maximise your chances of getting a return and may even lead to a few winning EURO bets.

Quick EURO 2024 Group Stage Betting Tips

• First Games: The first game is one of the most nerve-wracking. Players are still settling in, and they all want to start on a high. If there’s going to be a surprise, this is where you see the first signs.
• The Standings Matter: The third-place-finishers rule can change things going into the final game. It may make teams play more reservedly, as a point could send them through, while a loss sends them out. So, check the standings and see what’s needed before you bet.

Winners and Placers: You don’t need to limit your bets to the winners. You can also wager on the teams that will finish second, third, and fourth. So, if you think the winner is all but guaranteed, bet on the placers.

Quick Tips Betting on EURO Knockout Rounds

• • Home Support: This is when home support really comes into its own. It can make a massive difference, so always consider it when betting on EURO knockout rounds.
  • Previous Matchups: Have the teams played before? Did they meet in qualifying or friendlies? It doesn’t mean the result will repeat, but it gives you an idea of how things might go.
  • No One Wants to Lose: Knockout football can be tense compared to group stage games. There are no second chances, and that may cause teams to play more defensively than they otherwise would.
  No Third-Place Playoff: Bettors often forget that there is no third-place game in the European Championships like there is in the World Cup. Keep this in mind, especially if you’re betting on Top Goalscorer markets and anticipating an additional game after the semi-final (win or lose).

Quick Tips for Betting on the EURO Final

• Tense Affairs: Spain’s 4-0 victory against Italy in the EURO 2012 final was an exceptional game in more ways than one. Typically, EURO finals are low-scoring affairs. That was only the second game in EUROs history in which more than three goals were scored. So, even if the teams have been free-scoring until that point, that may change in the final.
• Bet Live: The best thing about modern EURO 2024 final betting is that you can do it while the game is in play. Watch the action unfold, pay attention to momentum, and place your bets accordingly.

Look for Promotions: We usually have promotions available for big games like the final, and EURO 2024 final betting should be no exception. Check our promotions page before betting to see if anything is available.

Live EURO Betting Strategies

Live betting has changed the game. It lets players react to the action on the pitch, and it can also be used to wager on outright markets while the games are ongoing. Live betting is available on scores of Casumo betting markets during EURO 2024, and there are a few ways you can use it to your advantage:

Watch the Momentum

If you’re betting on a live game at EURO 2024, make sure you’re watching it or at least paying attention to the stats. At this point, it stops being about pregame favourites and starts being about the action on the pitch and the momentum. Pay attention to the flow and try to go with it.

Don’t Write Off Big Teams Early

In EURO 2026, Portugal drew both of their opening games, first against Iceland and then against Austria. They scored just one goal across those two games and looked very disappointing. But they had the potential, and after drawing their third game against eventual group winners Hungary, that potential began to shine. They went on to win the tournament.

If you had placed a live bet on them during those disappointing group games, you would have gotten very good odds for them to win the tournament. Many had written them off, but others saw the potential (they never lost a game, after all) and were rewarded kindly.

Don’t Get Too Excited by the Minnows

Most major tournaments have a team that defies the odds and runs deep. They play out of their skins, get the support of the home crowd and the neutrals, and enter the knockout stakes on a high. At this point, everyone jumps on the bandwagon and starts betting on them. But then they go up against a bigger and better team, one that has studied their play style and figured them out.

These teams are great if you can bet on them early, but those late bets are risky, as they have a huge job on their hands to reach the final.

Don’t Be Afraid to Cash Out

Monitor the cash out value and act when the doubt creeps in. From that point, forget about the bet. It might have won, but it could just as easily have gone the other way. The point is that you acted, you took your money, and unless you placed further wagers, nothing else matters.

The fear of missing out can encourage bettors to leave their money in bets that they’re not convinced about.

Live Bet During Extra-Time

Extra-time is a great time to place your bets. You have a small break at the end of the game with which to check the markets and find value, and you have 30 minutes of action ahead. You’ve been watching the game for 90 minutes, so you have a fair idea of which team is on top and which players are posing the biggest threat. You could find some big winning EURO bets during that short break.

Summary: Betting on EURO 2024

Are you betting on group matches and hoping for a similar shock to the one that saw the Netherlands crash out of the group in 2012 or France finish bottom in EURO 2008? Maybe you’re betting on EURO knockout rounds in the hope that a favourite will come good, or we’ll get a shock akin to the 2014 Brazil World Cup, where the hosts were hammered 7-1 by a rampant Germany? Whatever bets you choose, if you’re betting on EURO 2024, make sure you stick with Casumo.

We have the best knockout and group stage odds, the biggest promotions and offers, and all of the tips and strategies you need to guide your endeavours. Sign up, if you haven’t already, see what promotions are available, and bet responsibly with Casumo!

Index: The Euro 2024 Betting Guide

1. EURO 2024 Betting Guide
2. The Stages of EURO 2024 Explained
3. EURO 2024: Strategies and Tips
4. The Groups: Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E and Group F
5. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Round of 16
6. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Quarter-Finals
7. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Semi-Finals