A Guide to Betting on the EURO 2024 Quarter-Finals

The EURO 2024 Round of 16 certainly lived up to expectations. We came very close to losing a couple of the tournament favourites during games they were expected to win, said goodbye to Belgium’s golden generation, and witnessed the birth of a new age of Turkish superstars, But things are only just heating up. The Quarter-Finals are coming up, and there are some very exciting games on the schedule.

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Spain vs Germany (July 5th) EURO 2024 Quarter-Finals Betting

Spain vs Germany kicks off the Quarter-Finals in style. It’s a matchup between the hosts and the tournament’s best-performing team thus far. They are also two of the highest-scoring and most entertaining teams. It’s a promising fixture even on an individual level, as it means fans will get a chance to see rising stars of Spain and Germany — 2 of the best new players in the world—face off against one another.

There’s a lot at stake. Both teams will fancy their chances of winning this competition and know that this is their toughest obstacle yet. A win here puts them into the Semi-Finals, which means they are within arm’s reach of the Final and a trophy that their respective fans expect them to win.

But does that mean we’re going to have an open and free-flowing game where they both flex their muscles, show the world what they’ve got, and give us a EURO classic that will be remembered for decades, or will it be a cagey affair where the main goal is not “win at all costs” but “avoid losing”?

Only time will tell, but whatever happens, it’s sure to be an interesting one.

Bet on Spain vs Germany.

Spain’s Knockout Journey So Far

Spain got off to an incredible start in their Round of 16 game against Georgia. They were the big favourites to win, and while there were questions and curiosities surrounding Georgia following their excellent victory over Portugal, few gave them a chance. But even the most optimistic of Spanish fans couldn’t have expected them to start so well, with every attack looking like it would result in a goal.

Georgia hit Spain on the counter in the 18th minute and opened the scoring with yet another EURO 2024 own goal. After that, Spain went right back into dominant mode. There were a few more scary moments when it looked like Georgia could extend their lead, but things settled down just 6 minutes from half-time when Rodri equalised with a well-placed shot on the edge of the box. After 6 minutes of the second half, the Spanish were 2-1 up. 

The game ended with a 4-1 victory to Spain, but it could have been much more. They had 35 shots in total, 13 of which hit the target, making for an action-packed highlight reel.

There were also some moments of brilliance from their other fantastic newcomer who grabbed the third goal, and right winger who was unlucky not to get on the scoresheet yet.

In the end, Spain lived up to the lofty expectations set for them before the match, making 4 wins from 4 for EURO 2024 and sending them into the Quarter-Finals with their confidence levels high.

Germany’s Knockout Journey So Far

Despite starting the tournament with a bang after a 5-1 win against Scotland and a 2-0 victory over Hungary, Germany struggled against a strong Swiss side in their final group game. German confidence dipped a little following that game, but they brought it back with an excellent performance against Denmark in the Round of 16.

Momentum swung both ways throughout the game. Denmark were unlucky to have a goal disallowed early in the second half, but the Germans hit their stride soon after. HGermany and Arsenal striker scored from the spot and Germany and Bayern Munich rising star, and one of the stars of the tournament so far, added a second 15 minutes later. Germany had a total of 9 shots on target compared to Denmark’s 2, and if not for some wasteful finishing and missed opportunities, they could have recorded a much higher victory.

Spain vs Germany Knockout Stage Odds

As far as EURO knockout stage odds are concerned, Spain vs Germany is the biggest tie of the round. Spain are currently the second favourites to win the competition while Germany are fourth. Spain are arguably playing the better football right now. They have also faced and beaten better teams so far, including wins against both Croatia and Italy. But both teams are strong and Germany have homefield advantage.

It’s tough to separate these 2, which is why their match odds are so close, with only a fraction between them.

Spain vs Germany Head-to-Head

Historically, Spain and Germany are very evenly matched. They have played each other 25 times, with 9 wins for Germany and 8 for Spain, along with 9 draws. Recently, however, it has been a very different story.

Germany have won just 1 of the last 8 matchups, with the most notable loss coming in November 2020 when Spain beat Germany 6-0 during the UEFA Nations League. The last time the Germans got the best of Spain came in a 2014 friendly, which ended with a 1-0 German victory.

Portugal vs France (July 5th) EURO 2024 Quarter-Finals Betting

Spain vs Germany isn’t the only EURO 2024 fixture that people will have a hard time predicting. Portugal and France will also be a tough one. Both teams have taken key games to the wire and haven’t particularly looked at their best. There are also some incredible players on these two squads, including Ronaldo of Portugal and France's best player, 2 names that are always in the conversation when it comes to the best players in the world.

Bet on Portugal vs France.

Portugal’s Knockout Journey So Far

Portugal began the tournament on a high and looked like one of the most promising teams during the first couple of group games. But then they lost 2-0 against rank outsiders Georgia, and all of a sudden, pundits and oddsmakers were questioning whether they had what it took to go the distance.

One of the saving graces for the Portuguese is that they dropped many big names for that game. So, going into their Round of 16 tie against Slovenia, they were the big favourites. However, despite some flashes of brilliance, they struggled against Slovenia and were held to a 0-0 draw during normal time and extra time.

The game ultimately went to the first penalty shootout of EURO 2024. You could have read a dozen penalty shootout predictions for EURO 2024 and you wouldn’t have seen this prediction, but you should always expect the unexpected in tournament football.

Fortunately for Portugal, they made light work of the shootout, rapidly undoing 2 hours of solid Slovenian defensive work by securing a 3-0 shootout victory.

France’s Knockout Journey So Far

France was handed one of the toughest ties of the Round of 16, as they faced off against their neighbours and historic rivals, Belgium. As with most of their games so far in this tournament, they did enough to win, but they didn’t look impressive doing it. They registered 19 shots in total, but just 2 of them were on target. A Vertonghen own goal in the 85th minute ultimately gave them the win and resigned a golden age of Belgian players to yet another disappointing tournament.

France weren’t really challenged in that game, but they also didn’t do enough to justify their position as one of the tournament’s top favourites.

Portugal vs France Knockout Stage Odds

France switched between first and second favourites in the run-up to EURO 2024. They have one of the best squads in the world and also have plenty of experience playing at the highest level, so it was only natural. 

Since then, however, France have steadily drifted in the betting and are now behind both England and Spain. They are ahead of Portugal though, and they are also the favourites to win this game, but don’t start planning your EURO 2024 Semi-Finals betting just yet. This one could go either way. Portugal have a history of getting the results when needed—they know how to run deep in tournaments even when they are not at their best. They also have some fantastic young and technically gifted players at their disposal.

Whatever happens between these two, it looks set to be one of the best games of the round, as well as one of the hardest to predict. If you’re planning some betting strategies for the knockout stages, we’d love to know how you’re calling this one, as we simply can’t split these two teams.

Portugal vs France Head-to-Head

Portugal have lost 19 of their 28 games against France, including a run between 1978 and 2015 when they lost 10 straight games with a cumulative score of 23-6. They have fared a little better in recent years, though, with 2 draws and 1 win in their last 4 meetings. The last time they met was at EURO 2020, a game that ended 2-2, but 4 years earlier, Portugal beat France 1-0 in the EURO 2016 Final thanks to an extra-time winner from Eder.

England vs Switzerland (July 6th) EURO 2024 Quarter-Finals Betting

England and Switzerland’s journeys to the Quarter-Finals have been very different. The Swiss are riding a wave of optimism after defying expectations with a comfortable Round of 16 win against the reigning European champions, Italy. England progressed by the skin of their teeth, and while they remain the tournament favourites, many fans back home are wondering how.

Bet on England vs Switzerland.

England’s Knockout Journey So Far

If you partook in any EURO 2024 Round of 16 betting, you would have seen just how heavily favoured England were for their game against Slovakia. It makes sense, considering Slovakia are 40 places behind The Three Lions in the FIFA World Rankings and have yet to record a single victory against them.

It’s fair to say that England didn’t play like favourites, though. They went behind in the 25th minute and didn’t record a single shot on target until deep into injury time, when England's and Real Madrid's star whipped an overhead kick into the bottom corner and saved England’s blushes. The goal sent the game into extra-time, and after just a minute of play, Kane nodded them into the lead, and they held on.

Pundits and fans were very frustrated with the style of play, the lack of urgency, and the absence of creativity. Southgate’s men will need to make some big improvements if they are going to live up to that favourites tag and win this competition.

Switzerland’s Knockout Journey So Far

EURO 2024 Round of 16 betting favoured Italy for their game against Switzerland, but their lacklustre form going into the knockout rounds meant that the odds for the Swiss to beat the Italians were the lowest they have been for a long time.

You wouldn’t have known they were the outsiders, though. They exploded out of the traps and bossed the game throughout, eventually getting a thoroughly deserved 2-0 victory. Italy had just 1 shot on target during that game, and the only question on the minds of fans and bettors is whether that result is reflective of how good Switzerland were or how bad Italy were.

Combined with England’s poor performance against Slovakia, we expect to see Switzerland included in many knockout betting tips.

England vs Switzerland Knockout Stage Odds

England will begin this game as the favourites—not just to progress but to win the whole tournament. Switzerland, on the other hand, are the second-biggest outsider, ahead of only Türkiye. 

The odds seemingly represent a belief that The Three Lions will eventually find their stride and their superstar players will do what has been expected of them since the outset. But don’t write Switzerland off just yet. This is a very good Swiss team that can cause some serious problems for England, even if Kane and Co. get into their groove.

England vs Switzerland Head-to-Head

England has only lost to Switzerland on 3 occasions, and 2 of those defeats came in international friendlies before 1950. The third defeat was in 1981 at a World Cup Qualifier. With 19 victories and just 5 draws, England holds the clear advantage in this head-to-head, but recent fixtures have been far from easy, as they haven’t won by more than 2 clear goals since the sides met at EURO 2004 and England came away with a 3-0 victory.

Netherlands vs Türkiye (July 6th) EURO 2024 Quarter-Finals Betting

If you’re looking for some upset potential in EURO 2024, your attention may have shifted to this game. Türkiye enter this contest as the highest-priced team left in the competition while the Netherlands are coming off of a big win. There is a clear difference in their respective knockout odds, but there is also a big difference in experience, and that could be the decider.

Bet on the Netherlands vs Türkiye.

Netherland’s Knockout Journey So Far

The Netherlands never really got going during the group stage. The potential was there, and it was clear that they had a talented squad, but they only scraped a win against Poland in their opener before drawing against France and losing to Austria.

That changed against Romania, though, and they were arguably one of the standout teams of the round. They beat a resilient Romanian team 3-0, and they made it look easy. The Netherland star was excellent, scoring the opener to record his third goal of the tournament before grabbing an assist for assist for Dutch and Borussia Dortmund forward late in the game. He finished things off in stoppage time with one of the goals of the tournament so far, and the Dutch finished on a high.

They may have worried about a repeat fixture against an Austrian team that got the better of them just a few days ago, but this is tournament football, and things don’t always turn out as expected.

Türkiye’s Knockout Journey So Far

Türkiye faced a tough challenge in the Round of 16, going up against a very strong and well-knit Austrian team. Many had already highlighted Austria as having the biggest upset potential of EURO 2024—the so-called dark horse. And Austria did show up to play, but they simply couldn’t contend with a Turkish side that seemingly wanted it more.

The Turks played their best football of the tournament so far, and it earned them a 2-1 victory. More importantly, they did it without their star playmaker, Hakan Calhanoglu, who sat out due to a suspension. They were simply brilliant, and they will enter the Netherlands game with confidence and momentum behind them.

Netherlands vs Türkiye Knockout Stage Odds

Unsurprisingly, Türkiye have the highest win odds of any EURO 2024 game. They are also the rank outsiders to win the whole tournament. They have a massive job on their hands if they’re going to find a way past a Dutch team that seems to have hit its stride, and even if they do, it will only get harder from here.

Still, they seem up for the task and won’t be fazed. Beating Austria will boost Turkish confidence, and if they can play with the same level of confidence and fluidity, and they can get their tactics right on the night, there’s no reason why they can’t edge past the Dutch.

At the same time, the Netherlands risk underestimating their opponents. Yes, they are going up against the tournament outsiders for a place in the Semi-Finals. But nothing is guaranteed at this level. Türkiye are excellent on the attack and registered one of the highest expected goal ratios during qualifying and in the finals thus far. They are a formidable opponent and will no doubt have the backing of many neutrals—everyone loves an underdog.

Netherlands vs Türkiye Head-to-Head

The first-ever game between the Netherlands and Türkiye was played back in 1958 and ended with a 2-1 win for the Turks. But it would take Türkiye nearly 40 years before they repeated that feat with a 1-0 victory in 1997. Overall, the Netherlands have beaten Türkiye 6 times and have lost 4 times, with 4 draws. But their recent history makes for some very interesting reading.

The last time that these two sides met was in 2021, with the Netherlands securing a comfortable 6-1 victory thanks in no small part to a Depay hat-trick. A few months earlier, however, the Turks beat the Dutch 4-2, and that was preceded by a big 3-0 Turkish victory in 2015.

These two teams don’t meet all that often, but when they do, there are usually fireworks and it can be a very unpredictable affair.

Looking Forward to EURO 2024 Semi-Finals Betting Markets

We’re just 4 games away from the Semi-Finals of Europe’s biggest international football competition. We’ve seen a few shocks already, including Georgia’s defeat of Portugal and Slovakia’s victory over Belgium. We’ve also witnessed some excellent football from nations that have lived up to expectations (Spain), as well as ones that fell a long way short (Italy). But there are no easy games from this point on. 

Every goal counts, every mistake could be costly, and players young and old will feel the weight of expectations bearing down on them.

It's going to be an exciting couple of weeks, so stick with Casumo and we’ll guide you through all of it.

Index: The Euro 2024 Betting Guide

1. EURO 2024 Betting Guide
2. The Stages of EURO 2024 Explained
3. EURO 2024: Strategies and Tips
4. The Groups: Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E and Group F
5. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Round of 16
6. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Quarter-Finals
7. EURO 2024 Betting Guide: Semi-Finals